But activity index of the Chicago Fed from 0

In the wake of the meeting of the Federal Reserve, the dollar emerged yesterday as the biggest loser on the foreign exchange market. As expected, the Fed opted Wednesday evening for a new status quo of its monetary policy. But it is mostly the tone of its communication stakeholders involved. The institution has slightly amended its release to reflect oil prices receding.

Suddenly, the greenback has folded yesterday against most major currencies. The euro took the opportunity to climb to 1,2781 ( 0.61), helped later in the day by the activity of the Philadelphia Fed index revealed to 0.4 point instead of the expected 14. The pound sterling, also helped by the anticipation of a rise in rates on the part of the Bank of England in November, is popular again, taking 0.67, to 1,9022 dollar. The US currency also assigned 0.59, to 116,60 yen.

If the Fed held to retain a certain margin of manoeuvre in indicating that inflation risk remained topical, his prognosis of economic activity appears somewhat more pessimistic to strategists. In fact, for the markets, the institution in probably finished with its cycle of rate hikes. For many stakeholders, the next move should be to lower rates in 2007. "The moderation of economic growth seems to continue, in part reflecting a slowdown in the housing market," concluded the institution. In August, she spoke of a gradual slowdown in the housing market. With regard to inflation, the Fed also noted "momentum reduced prices to energy".

New high point for the yuan

In the end, stakeholders have therefore identified a sweet speech. So, it could create the disappointment among the most optimistic, according to the team of 4Cast. Because the Central Bank has not consented to remove his bias on the rise in interest rates. And, especially, the dissenting vote of Jeffrey Lacker, President of the Richmond Fed, shows that the camp followers of firmness was not deserted. "The Fed, even under the era Bernanke, is a naturally conservative beast, who prefers the evolution revolution", ironically noted Richard Iley, at BNP Paribas.

Remains that statistics, disappointing feed yesterday on expectations of an inversion of the monetary policy. Yesterday, the leading indicator gave evidence of a decline of 0.2 in August, up to the expectations. But activity index of the Chicago Fed, from 0.07 to 0.18 , is below zero, threshold indicating less than the potential growth. Finally, blow late in the day, the Philadelphia Fed index has clearly disappointed, falling to 0.4 in September after 18.5 in August. Economists projected a moderate decline to 14. The reaction is not made to wait. In addition to the recession of the dollar which has been amplified on the front of State loans, yields are relaxed. 2 Years rate has fallen by 8 basis points, to 4,737 and one to 10 years in 7 points at 4,658.

For its part, the yuan yesterday established a new high point since its revaluation in July 2005. China's currency hit in meeting the 7,9233 for 1 dollar, against 7,9265 Wednesday. Arrival Wednesday in China from the Secretary of State for the Treasury, Henry Paulson, fueling hopes for talks with officials for an acceleration of reforms. Stakeholders expect a broadening of the daily fluctuation of the currency band. Yesterday, the head of the Central Bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, indicated that there was no timetable with regard to this possible initiative. But China will continue to take progressive steps to make its currency fully convertible.