For now inflation hardly caused waves across

In the United Kingdom, when inflation exceeds more 1 point objective established the Bank of England (BoE) - a 2 increase in the consumer price index-, the Governor of this must be split of a letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, to explain and describe how it intends to return to the nails. Mervyn King, the financier Revel, it has almost become routine. Since April 2007, he wrote no less than 9 letters to his Minister of finance, including 4 for the year 2010 alone. In November, last month of statistics available, the consumer prices rose at their fastest pace since fifteen years: an annual increase of 3.3. And, on the occasion of their last meeting beginning December, members of the BoE's monetary policy Committee estimated that inflation could reach 4 next spring.

While economists expect almost all that the correspondence between Mervyn King and George Osborne to thickens this year, inflation, with its negative consequences overlooked since the 1980s, is brutally again of concern across. The United Kingdom is a case apart among the rich. If inflation hazard in the emerging, particularly in China, it remains in effect under the 2 in the euro area and the United States. It is generally by a fall in the book of nearly a quarter of its value since the beginning of the financial crisis, and the return to 17.5, compared to 15 of the tax on the value added in 2010, that explained the thrust of the price in Britain.

The problem is that many analysts fear that the movement of prices continues. Although the economic recovery is strongest in Britain than elsewhere. The Office of budget responsibility (OBR) independent set up by the new Government expected that growth of 2.1 in 2011, 1.8 in 2010. It is much less than during previous economic cycles at this stage of recovery. The latest unemployment figures are not more very encouraging with a rate from 7.7 to 7.9 of the workforce, and a return to the peak of 2.5 million people unemployed. In addition, after the crisis, capacity surpluses remain in the production apparatus. Elements rather contrary to a reawakening of inflation and are said to the BoE that the situation will remain under control. For the time being, the majority of economists gives correct. But it would not be the first time in economic history that inflation and soft growth coexist and several factors must be monitored.

First, the VAT comes to 20 on 4 January. This new increase decided by the coalition for return to the balance of public finances, will be reflected by the retailers. Then, the inflationary forces exerted from abroad are unlikely to subside in the coming months. With global growth at 5, prices of oil and raw materials should not withdraw any time soon.

Then, in the spirit of consumer inflation expectations have begun to increase, a phenomenon worrying because it can run causing wage pressures fueling, this time, the true dreaded inflationary spiral. According to the BoE, households expect so inflation of 3.9 in the next 12 months, against an anticipation of 3.4 in August. The fact that the bad figures for November were drawn upward by also common areas that the food and clothing there is probably not for nothing. Economist at Morgan Stanley, Melanie Baker fears since long skid inflationary risks in the United Kingdom. It adds to all the above factors a long-term phenomenon all rich countries. When the population is ageing, fiscal pressure increases on assets and indirectly affects their wage claims.

For now, inflation hardly caused waves across. Reduced price increases the share of debt in GDP. It is therefore a form of fiscal austerity that - recognize many discreetly - arranged leaders. Up to a point however. The heritage newspapers thus began to warn real estate borrowers against an increase in interest rates, a classical consequence of inflation. The CBI, which represents British employers feared a rise of the Director of the faster BoE that expected rate, from 0.5 to 2.75 mid-2012. However, two thirds of the households have borrowed variable rate for their home. Even if it was that passenger, the inflationary peak in 2011 could also not falling at a worse time. The bulk of the cuts will begin to take effect from April, beginning of the new fiscal year. The OBR recognizes that the first half will be delicate. Politically, the situation may be tense. The Government could be more stuck he stated openly rely on the activism of the BoE to offset the effect of the cuts. However, if persistent inflation, it would see its margins of manoeuvre reduced. It would be better for everyone that the BoE is correct on the temporary nature of the rise in the price.